Awareness of chronic kidney disease, defined by kidney damage or reduced glomerular filtration rate, remains low in the United States, and few estimates of its future burden exist. To address this unmet issue a recent study published in the American Journal of Kidney Diseases showed that for an individual lifetime risk of CKD is high, with more than half the US adults aged 30 to 64 years likely to develop CKD.

 Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and high medical costs in the United States, particularly among older adults. Nearly 1 in 7 adults has CKD, and recent data suggest that the number of deaths as a consequence of CKD has doubled in the past 2 decades. In addition to its health burden, CKD requires substantial US health care resources.

In the study titled “The future burden of CKD in the United States: a simulation model for the CDC CKD Initiative”, a team of researchers from the RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC and from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, GA, used a simulation model to estimate the prevalence of CKD among US adults 30 and 65 years or older in 2020 and 2030, providing a national perspective on the future burden at a population level.

Results revealed that the residual lifetime incidence of CKD is 54.1% for ages 30 to 49, 52.0% for ages 50 to 64, and 41.8% for ages 65 years or older. The researchers also found that prevalence of CKD in adults 30 years or older is projected to increase from 13.2% to 14.4% in 2020 and 16.7% in 2030.

Based on these results the team indicates that improved forecasts of the future burden of CKD can help planners prepare for future health care needs, raise individuals’ awareness on the importance of keeping kidneys healthy, and stimulate research on interventions to slow the progression of CKD.